16-Jan-14
U.S. economy as it seems , the best performance since the depth of the recession in 2008 and 2009 . After four years of modest recovery , the economy has received from repairing damage to a large extent during the financial panic . Here are five reasons , the United States or better growth in real GDP 3.5% in May 2014 release .
1 . Deleveraging in the past : from financial disaster recovery are generally more difficult and expensive than recover from cyclical economic adjustment time. This is because the financial meltdown exposed to excessive expansion in the balance sheet , almost every sector of the fundamental weakness of consumption habits , from enterprise to consumer , regional and local governments. In the multi-year fiscal rebalancing - also known as deleveraging - monetary policy is relatively ineffective , to encourage more rapid growth. Every sector of the economy , in its own way , short-sighted focus on getting its debt reduction , its future revenue line expenses. For the U.S. economy , a process that took nearly four years of Lehman Brothers and AIG bailout in September 2008 bankruptcy. Now, rebalancing and deleveraging process has been completed , the U.S. economy is ready to grow a healthy pace.
2 . Fiscal and regulatory drag is waning : the U.S. federal budget deficit expanded sharply in the second term of President George W. Bush to fight the financial crisis, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson $ 1 trillion end emergency spending request. After a brief discussion before the November 2008 presidential election , the U.S. Congress approved the expenditures. The federal budget deficit peaked in fiscal 2009 to $ 14 trillion ( close to 10% of GDP ) . Since then, substantial progress has been made to reduce the deficit . For the 2013 fiscal year , the federal deficit is 680 billion ( accounting for 4% GDP in ) . For fiscal 2014 , we expect the "only " $ 500 billion ( accounting for 3% of GDP ) of the federal deficit .
In fiscal 2015 , we expect the U.S. government has been achieved fully balanced operating budget , excluding interest expense ( accounting for about 2% GDP in ) . More importantly , the U.S. federal budget deficit reduction in tax revenue being achieved ( in 2013 more than 8 percent in fiscal year 2012 fiscal year ) and the costs much higher stability ( in fiscal year 2013 was essentially flat , compared with fiscal 2012 ) . Higher taxes is a surprise , many analysts , but they reflect conceal the employment data by job losses in the restoration of national and local government departments in the private sector health.
3 . The worst in Europe : the U.S. economy operates around the globe we have from the past problems , the last point of diminishing wind rotation . Global factors have a serious drag on economic growth in the United States in the past few years , or even more severe in emerging market countries. Europe has been the culprit . Eurozone economy is the key to global economic growth legs . Europe is China 's largest trading partner , and that an important source of demand for commodities from all other regions of .
Europe has a very severe reaction to the 2008 financial panic , because some of the weaker economies , sovereign debt in the euro area has been too large. But the good news for the United States , China and other emerging market countries , the economy is no longer shrinking eurozone countries , and some small , gradual economic growth may in 2014.
4 . The Fed 's signal has turned positive : in the case by the end of 2013 with the Fed's aggressive monetary policy decision to abandon its view that the U.S. economy needs life support . Technically, what the Fed decided in December 2013 the Federal Open Market Committee meeting is the beginning of the taper of its emergency asset purchase program known as quantitative easing . Will be gradual tapering and last most of 2014 , economic conditions permitting. What is the stock market to hear , however , significantly different tone from the Fed's analysis . The Fed has finally become optimistic about the economic outlook .
5. Energy boom continues : U.S. energy production boom began in 2005-2006. As of 2014 , U.S. crude oil production and natural gas production 40% , respectively, higher than those levels . Our estimate is that this energy boom has helped adjust the real GDP growth rate of the U.S. economy after the financial crisis of 0.5% per year , and this will continue in the future energy growth dividend 3-7 years later .
We have seen an increase in oil production of lower crude oil imports . And increased production of natural gas has replaced coal as fuel for power , leading to an increase in coal exports have doubled since 2006 . It is very easy to overlook things happen slowly over time , but the U.S. energy revolution is real.
Optimistic about 2014 : In December 2012 , the market is justifiably concerned that the United States may extinguish fiscal cliff , Europe may burst, while China could face a hard landing. In fact , the United States did not go to the cliff , and the budget deficit on the road to the 2015 fiscal year operating balance . Europe has stabilized , even though strong economic growth is still out of reach now . China has been a smooth transition to new leadership to achieve a soft landing , and is expected to achieve meaningful market -oriented reforms.
The removal of a drag on economic growth , in a sense , the necessary fiscal 2008 and for many years after the disaster rebalancing has been completed, but in fact, the federal government is a move towards fiscal stability , the Fed more positive message and energy revolution , in all point to a strong U.S. economic growth in a year . For the record, our forecast of 3.5 % growth in U.S. real GDP in 2014 , the unemployment rate will be at the end of this year and core inflation rate has dropped to about 6.0 percent , to remain below 2% , an increase over last year. Not a bad year , if it can be achieved.
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